Shinichiro Nakamura, Kensuke Otsuyama, Fuko Nakai, Hiroyoshi Morita, Tsuyoshi Takano, Megumi Nabata, Miki Namba, Masaomi Kimura, Ryuma Shineha, Cao Vu Quynh Anh, Kei Yoshimura
Received 20 January, 2025
Accepted 6 July, 2025
Published online 4 December, 2025

Shinichiro Nakamura¹⁾, Kensuke Otsuyama²⁾, Fuko Nakai³⁾, Hiroyoshi Morita⁴⁾, Tsuyoshi Takano⁴⁾, Megumi Nabata⁵⁾, Miki Namba⁶⁾, Masaomi Kimura⁷⁾, Ryuma Shineha⁸⁾, Cao Vu Quynh Anh⁹⁾, Kei Yoshimura⁹⁾

1) Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Nagoya University, Japan
2) Research Center for Advanced Science and Technology, The University of Tokyo, Japan
3) Department of Architecture, Civil Engineering and Industrial Management, Nagoya Institute of Technology, Japan
4) Research Institute of Infrastructure Engineering, Dia Nippon Engineering Consultants Co., Ltd, Japan
5) NPO Partnering to Nurture Community Engawa Design, Japan
6) Global Initiative Center, Kagoshima University, Japan
7) Department of Environmental Management, Kindai University, Japan
8) Research Center on Ethical, Legal, and Social Issues, Osaka University, Japan
9) Institute of Industrial Science, The University of Tokyo, Japan

This study investigated the potential impacts of Long Lead-time Flood Forecasting Systems (LFS) on disaster response and societal changes through focus groups involving administrative stakeholders and researchers in Nagano, Japan. LFS has been shown to enhance proactive disaster responses, such as improved evacuation support and shelter environments in flood-prone areas, while fostering long-term societal transformations, including increased resilience and adaptive capacity. However, the study also identified potential negative impacts, such as overreliance on forecasts, psychological biases, and reduced infrastructure investments, underscoring the need for responsible LFS implementation.

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