Projection of glacier mass changes under a high-emission climate scenario using the global glacier model HYOGA2

Yukiko Hirabayashi, Yong Zang, Satoshi Watanabe, Sujan Koirala, Shinjiro Kanae
Released: March 09, 2013

Projection of glacier mass changes under a high-emission climate scenario using the global glacier model HYOGA2

Yukiko Hirabayashi1), Yong Zang1), Satoshi Watanabe1), Sujan Koirala1), Shinjiro Kanae2)

1) Institute of Engineering Innovation, School of Engineering, the University of Tokyo
2) Department of Mechanical and Environmental Informatics, Tokyo Institute of Technology

We report a time series (1948–2100) of global-scale meltwater from mountain glaciers and ice caps (MGI) estimated by the global glacier model HYOGA2. HYOGA2 calculates the temporal fluctuation of the mass balance for 24,234 individual glaciers worldwide. It covers 90% of the total glacier area, except for glaciers in Greenland and Antarctica. HYOGA2 also accounts for regionally distributed changes in glacier area and altitude associated with glacier retreat and advance. By computation of individual glacier changes, future dissipation and glacier mass and area changes can be simulated in the model. The cumulative volume loss of water between 1948 and 2005 was estimated to be 25.9 ± 1.4 mm sea level equivalent (SLE). A future projection under a high-emission scenario demonstrated significant losses of water from MGI equivalent to 60.3 ± 7.9 mm SLE between 1948 and 2060 and 99.0 ± 14.9 mm SLE between 1948 and 2099.

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Edited and published by : Japan Society of Hydrology and Water Resources Produced and listed by : Nakanishi Printing Co.,Ltd.(Vol. 4 (2010)) Gakujutsu-tosho Printing Co. Ltd.(Vol. 2 (2008) – Vol. 4 (2010))

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