Extreme precipitation intensity in future climates associated with the Clausius-Clapeyron-like relationship

Tomohito J. Yamada, Murad. A. Farukh, Taiki Fukushima, Masaru Inatsu, Tomonori Sato, Yadu N. Pokhrel, Taikan Oki
Released: February 17, 2015

Extreme precipitation intensity in future climates associated with the Clausius-Clapeyron-like relationship

Tomohito J. Yamada1), Murad. A. Farukh1), Taiki Fukushima2), Masaru Inatsu3), Tomonori Sato4), Yadu N. Pokhrel5), Taikan Oki6)

1) Faculty of Engineering, Hokkaido University
2) Graduate School of Engineering, Hokkaido University
3) Faculty of Science, Hokkaido University
4) Faculty of Environmental Earth Science, Hokkaido University
5) Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Michigan State University, USA
6) Institute of Industrial Science, The University of Tokyo

This paper introduces a method named “hybrid-downscaling” to estimate the future extreme hourly precipitation intensity based on observational evidence of the 99th percentile precipitation intensity against air temperature in Sapporo and Tokyo, Japan. The future projected air temperature under the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) A1B was used after dynamical downscaling using 3 different regional atmospheric models (RAMs) with lateral boundary conditions from 3 different general circulation models (GCMs). We analyzed the 99th percentile of hourly precipitation intensity against daily mean air temperature in Sapporo and Tokyo. The 99th percentile precipitation intensity tended to have an approximate equation in which the rate of increment was similar to the Clausius-Clapeyron rate of change in the saturated water vapor. This study also showed that the precipitable water vapor and the convective instability followed the Clausius-Clapeyron-like rate of change during the hours with the 99th percentile precipitation intensity.

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Copyright (c) 2015 Japan Society of Hydrology and Water Resources

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