Effects of global warming on the impacts of Typhoon Mireille (1991) in the Kyushu and Tohoku regions

Tetsuya Takemi, Rui Ito, Osamu Arakawa
Received 2016/08/09, Accepted 2016/10/13, Published 2016/11/12

Tetsuya Takemi1), Rui Ito2), Osamu Arakawa3)

1) Disaster Prevention Research Institute, Kyoto University
2) National Research Institute for Earth Science and Disaster Resilience
3) Faculty of Life and Environmental Sciences, University of Tsukuba

Typhoon Mireille (1991) caused devastation over Japan. Assessing the impacts of such an extreme typhoon under global warming is an important task to prevent and mitigate future natural disasters. This study investigated the influences of global warming on the strong winds of Typhoon Mireille by conducting pseudo-global warming (PGW) experiments with a regional model. Since significant damages to forest areas occurred in Kyushu and Tohoku, we compared the typhoon impacts in these two regions. It was demonstrated that on average the mean wind speeds induced by Typhoon Mireille become stronger in Kyushu and weaker in Tohoku under the PGW conditions than under the September 1991 conditions. The difference between the two regions in the future is due to the simulated typhoons under PGW being stronger at lower latitudes and weakening more rapidly at higher latitudes. Thus, the impacts of Typhoon Mireille under a warmed climate are considered to be more severe at a lower latitude and weaker at a higher latitude.

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