Robustness and uncertainty of projected changes in the impacts of Typhoon Vera (1959) under global warming

Tetsuya Takemi, Rui Ito, Osamu Arakawa
Received 2016/09/13, Accepted 2016/10/28, Published 2016/11/22

Tetsuya Takemi1), Rui Ito2), Osamu Arakawa3)

1) Disaster Prevention Research Institute, Kyoto University
2) National Research Institute for Earth Science and Disaster Resilience
3) Faculty of Life and Environmental Sciences, University of Tsukuba

This study numerically investigates the influences of global warming on Typhoon Vera (1959) by conducting pseudo-global warming experiments. It was found that the intensity of Typhoon Vera will be stronger in warmed climate conditions than in the actual September 1959 condition not only at the time of the typhoon’s maturity but also at the time of the landfall. Sensitivity experiments indicate that this projected increase in the typhoon intensity is robust, by taking into consideration the effects of the increase in sea surface temperature and temperature lapse rate under global warming. The examination of rainfall characteristics over the Kiso River and the Yodo River basin demonstrated that the maximum accumulated rainfall and the maximum hourly rainfall at a certain location within the region are more intensified in the PGW conditions than in the 1959 condition at their worst levels. Robustness and uncertainty of the projected changes in the typhoon impacts are discussed.

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