Future projection of flood inundation considering land-use changes and land subsidence in Jakarta, Indonesia

Idham Riyando Moe, Shuichi Kure, Nurul Fajar Januriyadi, Mohammad Farid, Keiko Udo, So Kazama, Shunichi Koshimura
Received 2017/02/20, Accepted 2017/04/07, Published 2017/04/28

Idham Riyando Moe1), Shuichi Kure2), Nurul Fajar Januriyadi3), Mohammad Farid4), Keiko Udo5), So Kazama1), Shunichi Koshimura5)

1) Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Tohoku University
2) Department of Environmental Engineering, Toyama Prefectural University
3) Graduate School of Environmental Studies, Tohoku University
4) Faculty of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Bandung Institute of Technology, Indonesia
5) International Research Institute of Disaster Science, Tohoku University

Jakarta is facing several issues related to flooding, includ­ing land subsidence in the coastal area and rapid land-use/cover changes in the upstream area. In this study, we analyzed the effects of future changes in land use and land subsidence using a rainfall-runoff and flood inundation model. The future land-use scenarios were projected based on the SLEUTH model, and land subsidence was projected based on an extrapolation of the current state in Jakarta.

Based on this analysis, land-use changes and land subsidence contributed to an increase in flood inundation volume of 36.8% from 2013 to 2050. Moreover, the effects of land-use changes on flood inundation in Jakarta were much greater than those of land subsidence. The government’s current target to stop land subsidence by 2020 would cause a 7.7% decrease in the flood inundation volume by 2050. Furthermore, controlling and regulating land-use/cover changes by 2020 would cause a 10.9% decrease in the flood inundation volume by 2050. From these results, we conclude that a flood mitigation plan should be made not only for land subsidence, but also for land-use changes.

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Copyright (c) 2017 The Author(s) CC-BY 4.0

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